In this blog post let us look at India’s GDP Growth Forecast 2019-20 by various Financial Organizations in India and around the world. These forecasts are mostly asked in the General/Economy/Banking Awareness section in various Banking & Insurance Exams. Let us revise these and make sure that not a single mark is lost if the question is asked around this topic.
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India’s GDP Growth Forecast 2019
By Various Financial Organizations
| Sr. No. | Organizations | FY20 (2019-2020) | FY21 (2020-2021) |
| 1. | RBI (In 5th Bi-monthly Monetary Policy) | 5% | |
| 2. | Economic Survey 2018-19 | 7.0% | |
| 3. | IMF | 6.1% | 7.2% |
| 4. | World Bank | 6% | 7.5% |
| 5. | Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) | 6.2% | |
| 6. | United Nations’ World Economic Situation and Prospects (UNESP) 2019 | 7.1% | |
| 7. | FICCI (Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry) Economic Outlook Survey | 5% | 7.2% |
| 8. | Goldman Sachs | 5.1% | |
| 9. | Singapore DBS Group | 6.2% | 7.0% |
| 10. | Fitch Solutions | 4.6% | |
| 11. | CRISIL | 5.1% | |
| 12. | Care Ratings Agency | 6.4%-6.5% | |
| 13. | OECD (Organization for Economic Co-Operation & Development) | 5.8% | 6.3% |
| 14. | Asian Development Outlook by ADB (Asian Development Bank) | 5.1% | 7.2% |
| 15. | UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) | 6% | |
| 16. | NCAER (National Council of Applied Economic Research) | 4.9% | |
| 17. | India Ratings & Research Pvt. Ltd. | 5.6% | |
| 18. | CSO | 5% | |
| 19. | SBI | 5% | |
| 20. | Moody | 4.9% |
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Note: We will keep updating the list of India’s GDP Growth Forecast 2019 as and when these are updated by the respective Financial Organizations.
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Some Important Definitions
Four ways have been developed to measure National Income GDP, NDP, GNP, NNP. through product method.
- Gross Domestic Product
- Net Domestic Product
- Gross National Product
- Net National Product
- Per-Capita Income
- Factor Cost & Market Price
- Constant Prices & Current Prices
- Changes in GDP Calculation
1. Gross Domestic Product
It is the monetary value of the final goods and services produced in the territory of the country in a year. It is used by the IMF and World Bank in a comparative analysis of its member Nations.
It is a quantitative concept and here one year in India is calculated from April to March.
2. Net Domestic Product
NDP is the monetary value of the final goods and services produced in the territory of the country in a year minus depreciation. It considers Depreciation. It is the net form of GDP.
- NDP = GDP- Depreciation
- NDP is always less than the GDP
- NDP is mostly used for domestic purposes like calculating historic depreciation.
- As it deals with depreciation it gives to analyse Research and Development.
3. Gross National Product
GNP takes into account additionally the net income from abroad. Income from Abroad includes Trade balance, interest from external loans, private remittance. The final output from Net income may be positive or negative.
GNP= GDP+ Net Income from Abroad
- In the case of India, this component is always negative.
- Hence GNP= GDP- Net Income from Abroad
- This is the National Income which IMF considers for ranking economies on Purchasing Power Parity.
- This indicates both domestic and external factors.
4. Net National Product
It is the GNP after considering Depreciation.
NNP= GNP – Depreciation.
This is the purest form of income of a nation and is called NATIONAL INCOME.
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5. Per-Capita Income
Per capita income is often used to measure a country’s standard of living. It is usually expressed in terms of a commonly used international currency such as the euro or United States dollar, and is useful because it is widely known, is easily calculable from readily available gross domestic product and population estimates, and produces a useful statistics for comparison of wealth between sovereign territories.
This helps to ascertain a country’s development status. It is one of the three measures for calculating the Human Development Index of a country.
- This is the total income divided by the population of the country.
- When we divide NNP by the Population we get the Per-capita Income.
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6. Factor Cost & Market Price
The Value of the Goods and services are to be calculated at a cost and Price. National Income is calculated at factor cost and Market Price.
Factor Cost – Factor cost is the cost of the production of the goods and it is defined as the price of the product at the factory. Hence it is also known as Factor price.
Market Price – This includes taxes and any subsidies by the government to the product.
National Income at Factor cost = National Income at Market Price – Indirect Taxes + Subsidies
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7. Constant Prices & Current Prices
- National Income is calculated at Constant and Current Prices.
- The difference between the two is that current prices take Inflation into consideration.
- Constant Prices are the prices prevailing in the base year.
8. Changes in GDP Calculation
Central Statistical Organization (CSO) releases the GDP data every quarter and recently in 2015 some changes have been done.
- Base year is changed from 2004-05 to 2011-12.
- National Income is now GDP at Constant Market Price instead of GDP at Constant Factor Cost.
- Gross value now will be given at basic prices instead of factor cost.
This was all from us in this blog of “India’s GDP Growth Forecast 2019”. We hope you like the content provided.
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