Indian GDP Growth Rate – Current Scenario | India’s GDP Growth Forecast 2021

Nowadays the newspapers are filled with news about the Indian GDP Growth Rate like It has fallen to 5%, GDP forecasts revised, etc. Every serious aspirant of Banking and Government Exams like RBI, SEBI, NABARD, IBPS PO, etc must know the importance of these news items on Indian GDP. Questions have been repeatedly asked on these topics in all the above-mentioned exams. Hence to help our readers gain an edge over their competitors we are going to provide you with all the details you need to know about the Current State of the Indian GDP Growth Rate, Its impact, Steps to revival, etc. In this blog post, we would also look at India’s GDP Growth Forecast 2020-21 and 2021-22 by various Financial Organizations in India and around the world. These forecasts are mostly asked in the General/Economy/Banking Awareness section in various Banking & Insurance Exams. Let us revise these and make sure that not a single mark is lost if the question is asked around this topic.

India’s GDP Growth Forecast 2020-21 & 2021-22

ORGANISATION REPORT FY 2020-21 FY 2021-22
IMF World Economic Outlook -8% (2020) 11.5% (2021)
World Bank Global Economic Prospects Report -9.6% 5.4%
Fitch   -9.4% 11%
RBI Monetary Policy -7.5% 10.5%
FICCI FICCI’s Economic Outlook -8%  
Asian Development Bank Asian Development Outlook

 

-8% 8%
Moody’s Global Macro Outlook 2021-22 -7% 13.7%
CRISIL   -7.7% 10%
OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development) OECD Economic Outlook  -9.9%

 

7.9%
State Bank of India   -7% 11%
Morgan Stanley   -5.7% (2020) 9.8% (2021)
NCAER (The National Council of Applied Economic Research)   -7.3%  
Ind-Ra India Ratings and Research   -7.8% 10.4%
Goldman Sachs India 2021 Outlook -10.3% 13%
UN World Economic Situation and Prospects  -9.6% (2020) 7.3% (2021)
Economic Survey   -7.7% 11%
Oxford Economics     10.2% (2021)
IHS Markit   -8.9% 8.9

World’s GDP Growth Forecast 2020-21 & 2021-22

ORGANISATION REPORT Calendar Year (2020) Calendar Year (2021)
IMF World Economic Outlook -3.5% (2020) 5.5% (2021)
World Bank Global Economic Prospects Report -4.3% (2020) 4% (2021)
Fitch   -3.7% (2020) 5.3% (2021)
OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development) OECD Economic Outlook  -4.2% (2020) 4.2% (2021)
Morgan Stanley     6.4% (2021)
Goldman Sachs India 2021 Outlook -3.7% (2020) 6.3% (2021)
UN World Economic Situation and Prospects  -4.3% (2020) 4.7% (2021)
IHS Markit   -3.7% (2020) 5.0% (2021)

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What is GDP?

GDP or as we call it Gross Domestic Product is the measure of all the final products and goods monetarily that are produced in a specific time, mostly considered annually and seldom taken quarterly. After many hindrances in 1944 GDP became an official tool for determining the country’s economy.

How is GDP calculated?

GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government investment + government spending + (exports – imports).

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Current Scenario in India GDP Growth Rate:

The Indian Economy went into the trench with the release of this quarter’s GDP, It has plunged to as low as 5% as compared to 5.8% from quarter 2 this year. It is lower than the market estimate of 5.7%. The latest growth rate numbers are the lowers since the first quarter of 2013. Manufacturing, automobiles, and construction sectors are the worst hit among all.

There are many other sectors that are facing the slowdown that has led to the downfall of the economy amidst the crisis. Apart from the 2 mentioned above mining and Financial sector are few other sectors that have taken the hit.

This fall in the GDP is the worst in the last 6 years.

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Why did the Indian GDP Growth Rate reach the current levels?

There were various steps involved in the sudden fall of the Indian Economy:

  1. The supply created in certain sectors was more than the requirements which eventually resulted in the fall of the economy.
  2. Excessive interest rates on certain entities also amount to the increase in supply and decrease in demand.
  3. Inflation is also one of the major causes for the depleted GDP as the shift of users from purchasing an expensive product to shifting to a reasonable product just because the economy is affecting the wage growth is also one of the reasons.
  4. Government spending reduction can directly be proportional to the fall in GDP as the daily wage worker are highly reliant on these incomes. As soon as the government stops the payment for these sectors this highly affects the GDP rate.

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Effects of falling Growth Rate of Indian GDP on the current economy:

  1. The value of money is falling in comparison with the US Dollar which in return causes the prices of utilities to inflate
  2. Unemployment has also taken a toll in this scenario. There are various sectors that are facing job cutoffs.
  3. Optimism in the market has fallen to an all-time low first time since 2013.
  4. The average income of all the sections of the society is impacted by the fall.

What steps are needed to revive the Falling Indian GDP Growth Rate?

  • As per the expectations of Leading economists, it is estimated that the next 2 months are very crucial for the Indian market. It is expected that the GDP will be stabilized after the festive season kicks in.
  • Many experts believe that there need to be more interest rate cuts to help stabilize the situation.
  • Fixing the liquidity crisis will also be a crucial step. Increasing the cash flow is very important for the revival of the plunging economy. More cash flow would ensure the balance between manufacture and purchase.
  • Many economists believe that the recently taken steps are not enough to help revive the situation. Simply increasing the supply without creating the demand will simply deteriorate the condition even more. Hence focus should also be on increasing the demand.

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That is all from us in the blog on India’s GDP Growth Forecast 2020-21 and Current State of the Indian GDP Growth Rate. Keep checking this space for all the latest Exam updates, Study Materials, Free Ebooks, etc. All the best for your exam preparation.

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